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| #871541 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:01 AM 04.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 100 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 88.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located by the radar in Belize City near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 88.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move across central or northern Belize during the next several hours, and move over the southern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala later on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Earl will begin to weaken as it moves farther inland over Belize. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91 inches). A storm chaser in Belize City reported a pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore of the coast of Belize near and north of Belize City and should spread inland during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in the warned area. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
