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| #871551 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:49 AM 04.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 89.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings. The Government of Belize has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the coast of Belize. Interests along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, Earl is expected to move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today, and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight or Friday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the coast of Belize, but should gradually subside. These conditions should spread over northern Guatemala this morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should continue to subside today as the center of Earl moves farther inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
