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| #871561 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 04.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 100 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 90.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF FLORES GUATEMALA ABOUT 140 MI...255 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located inland over northern Guatemala near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Earl will continue to move across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves over high terrain, and Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions over a small area near the center should continue to spread westward over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico this afternoon. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
