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| #871568 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 04.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL STILL A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS IT WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 90.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located inland over northwestern Guatemala near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will continue move into southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Earl is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few hours in a small area near the center as it moves through portions of northwestern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
