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| #871575 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 04.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 91.2W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located inland over southeastern Mexico near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 91.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will continue to move into southeastern Mexico tonight, and move near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Earl is expected to become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Ciudad del Carmen recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) with a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue for the next few hours in a small area near and north of the center as it moves through portions of southeastern Mexico. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
