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| #871591 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 04.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 Somewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity this evening. Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind gust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Since the forecast track takes the center along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the next 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength on Friday. Based on the new official intensity forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. In 36 hours or so, the center of Earl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the system is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours. Earl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt. A large mid-level ridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a continued west-northwestward to westward motion through the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the most recent multi-model consensus. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.4N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 18.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
