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| #871593 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 AM 05.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 100 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...CENTER OF EARL APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 92.3W ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM SW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde Mexico. Interests elsewhere along the southern Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located by the Mexican radar at Sabacuy near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 92.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and tonight, then moving into the southeastern mainland of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening expected on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Guatemala and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz into Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
