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| #871599 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:38 AM 05.Aug.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 ...EARL HUGGING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 93.5W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ciudad del Carmen westward to Laguna Verde, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was estimated near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 93.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will be moving near the coast along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche today and tonight. Earl will then move into southeastern mainland Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today or tonight, with weakening expected on Saturday when Earl moves into mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread westward across the warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tabasco and Veracruz through Saturday morning with possible isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
