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| #871604 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 05.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain, but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high terrain of southern Mexico. The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt. A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one. The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.6N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 06/1200Z 18.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
