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| #872737 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 22.Aug.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016 Fiona is a very disorganized tropical cyclone. The associated deep convection has been sputtering and lacking in organization. The current intensity is held at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Strong westerly shear has been affecting the tropical cyclone, but this shear is forecast to abate in 12 to 24 hours as the system moves away from an upper-level trough and into a region of upper-level easterlies. By 48 hours or so, however, the shear over the cyclone should be increasing due to another trough just off the U.S. east coast. Given its current state, Fiona is not expected to take much advantage from the reduced shear and instead will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, or sooner. The official intensity forecast is below the consensus guidance, and follows the trend shown in the global models. The center is not easy to locate on night time imagery, but the best guess at the initial motion is a slightly slower 290/13 kt. Fiona is expected to turn northwestward with some deceleration as it heads for a break in the subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.5N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.9N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 26.7N 65.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.7N 67.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 28.7N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 30.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
