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| #872902 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 24.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016 Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies, recent ASCAT measurements, and numerous dropsondes from the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the initial intensity of Gaston remains at 60 kt. Strong upper-level westerlies blowing around the base of an upper low to the northwest of Gaston are already affecting the symmetry of the cyclone, and the low-level center is on the western edge of the convection. This strong westerly shear is expected to last for about 36 hours, resulting in some weakening. Most of the global models move the upper low toward the southwest, and in about 2 days, Gaston will again be in a favorable environment for intensification. On this basin, the NHC forecast weakens the cyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours, and then calls for Gaston to intensify and reach hurricane strength over the warm waters of the central Atlantic. The forecast follows closely the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. Gaston is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt steered by the flow between the subtropical high and the same low that is causing the shear. As the low moves southwestward and the ridge to the north of the cyclone amplifies, Gaston should turn a little more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is the middle of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the latest multi-model consensus. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.6N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.1N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.3N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 26.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 30.5N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 32.0N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
