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| #873191 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 28.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 The 15 n mi diameter eye has become more distinct on visible satellite images today, and enhanced IR images show a cooling of the cloud tops surrounding the eye. These features indicate strengthening, and the current intensity is increased to 100 kt in agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is well-established both to the west and the east of the hurricane. Based on a consensus of the intensity models, not much additional strengthening is anticipated. When Gaston moves to a little higher latitude, westerly shear on the system should increase, and steady weakening is expected to commence in about 48 hours. Gaston continues to crawl northwestward while being partially blocked by a narrow mid-level subtropical ridge. The hurricane is forecast to work its way through the ridge over the next day or so. By Tuesday, an east-northeastward motion with gradual acceleration is likely as the system begins to feel the effect of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is shifted a little southward late in the forecast period, in line with the latest global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 30.8N 55.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 31.4N 55.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 32.0N 54.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 32.8N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 34.9N 47.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 37.5N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 37.5N 33.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
