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| #873267 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find many changes to the depression this morning, with maximum believable SFMR winds of about 30 kt. This value will remain the initial wind speed. Satellite images indicate the cyclone continues to struggle to produce convection, likely due to moderate shear and plentiful dry air aloft. The environment is forecast to become more conducive over the next 24 hours, with a slight decrease in shear and an increase in moisture. Thus, the latest forecast still shows the depression becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday. Most of the guidance suggests the cyclone will strengthen in a couple of days while it moves northeastward away from the Carolinas as it moves right along the Gulf Stream. Since the previous forecast is almost identical to the new model consensus, no significant changes are made to the final NHC intensity forecast. The depression is moving northwestward, now at about 6 kt. The cyclone should slow down and begin to turn to the north as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. In 36 to 48 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one. The cyclone should be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in about 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 33.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.8N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 34.4N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 35.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 36.2N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 39.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
