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| #873270 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 29.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 Over the past few hours, the satellite presentation of Gaston has become slightly less organized, with decreasing convection noted in the eyewall. Satellite estimates are a bit lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt. Little change in intensity is expected for the next couple of days while Gaston remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. Thereafter, a gradual increase in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should cause a more significant weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast is simply an update of the previous one since the guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement. Gaston is still drifting northward. The steering currents should become better defined tomorrow as a ridge becomes established to the south of the cyclone. The ridge should cause Gaston to accelerate to the east-northeast over the next few days, although the cyclone stays south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies. Guidance is coming into better agreement on the system approaching the Azores in about 5 days, although there are some speed differences. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which lies near or just south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 31.0N 55.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 31.3N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 31.9N 53.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 32.6N 51.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 36.7N 42.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 38.0N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 39.0N 30.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
