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| #873368 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 30.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016 Microwave satellite images indicate that Gaston has completed an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye is better defined than it was overnight and it has contracted some. In addition, the convective pattern has gained symmetry, and dry slots that were apparent overnight are no longer evident. The initial intensity is increased a little to 90 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification of 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and slightly higher numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so while Gaston remains in generally conducive environmental conditions. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler waters and into an atmosphere of increasing shear and dry air. These conditions should cause a steady weakening trend likely beginning on Wednesday night or Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged otherwise. This forecast is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is now 060/7 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Gaston should cause the hurricane to become more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. As a result, Gaston will likely accelerate east-northeastward during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a large extratropical low pressure area will approach Gaston and it should cause the hurricane to turn to the northeast and slow down. The NHC track forecast is a bit slower than the previous one at the longer range points, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 32.2N 52.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 32.8N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 34.1N 49.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 35.9N 45.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 37.6N 41.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 39.0N 32.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 39.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 42.0N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
