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| #873398 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 30.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Satellite images indicate that the depression remains disorganized. The low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned, with convection continuing only sporadically near the center. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Despite the lack of strengthening, the environment appears conducive for some intensification eventually over the next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear. The intensity forecast is reduced a little in the short term to account for the current disorganized structure, then no change was made to the remainder of the intensity forecast. The system should become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates within a frontal zone. The cyclone has been drifting recently, but it should start a slow north-northeastward motion by tonight as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The mid-latitude flow then increases, which should cause the depression to accelerate northeastward. Model guidance is tightly clustered, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Model guidance indicates the system is nearing its closest point of approach to the Outer Banks. We have elected to continue the Tropical Storm Warning for this advisory, but this could be lowered tonight if a more consistent motion away from the coast becomes established. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 34.4N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 35.0N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 36.3N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 38.3N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
