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| #873430 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 30.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that the center of the depression is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. The plane did not find any stronger winds than in previous missions, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Westerly vertical shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to decrease, and in fact it should increase substantially from 24 hours and beyond. Still, if the system can maintain deep convection while it remains over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so, the mere fact that it is expected to accelerate from this point forward could allow the maximum winds to increase. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, but it does allow for possible strengthening to tropical storm strength in about 12 hours. The cyclone should become extratropical by 72 hours, but after that there is some uncertainty whether it will be absorbed by another cyclone or become the dominant system. For now, the forecast continues to show it becoming absorbed, which is in line with the ECMWF. The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is beginning to move away from the Outer Banks with an initial motion of 040/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast through the forecast period. The track models are in very good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 34.5N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 35.4N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 37.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 39.3N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 41.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 45.1N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
