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| #873460 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016 Gaston's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. It consists of a large and clear eye surrounded by rings of very deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates have remained steady and still support and initial intensity of 105 kt. Gaston is over warm waters and the shear is expected to increase just a little during the next day or two. Consequently, only a slight weakening is anticipated during the the day or so. After that time, Gaston should encounter cooler waters resulting in a faster weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Gaston should become absorbed by another extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. The initial motion is 050/8 kt. Gaston is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the hurricane toward the northeast and east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. By day 3, the cyclone should reduce its forward speed once it begins to interact with a separate extratropical cyclone. No significant adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast and it continues to be close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. Gaston continues to move in the direction of the Azores, and all interests in these islands should monitor the progress of this cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 33.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 34.5N 48.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 36.3N 44.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 37.5N 40.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 38.5N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 39.5N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 41.5N 22.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
