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| #873520 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 31.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016 The satellite presentation of Gaston has gradually decayed today, with the eye becoming more ragged in infrared imagery. The initial intensity estimate is 90 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Steady weakening is expected during the next few days while SSTs decrease steadily along the forecast track and the shear increases above 20 kt by 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and is close to the latest intensity model consensus, and now shows Gaston weakening to a tropical storm as it approaches the Azores on Friday. Gaston should lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours and dissipate by 96 hours as shown by the global models. The initial motion estimate is 055/16, and Gaston is expected to move east-northeastward to eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies through dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous one and is along the middle of the guidance envelope but faster than the TVCN consensus, trending toward the faster FSU Superensemble. Based on the new forecast, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the western and central Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 35.0N 46.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 36.3N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 37.7N 39.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 38.5N 34.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 39.0N 30.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 41.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
