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| #873556 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 31.Aug.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...HERMINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 87.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Suwannee River westward to Mexico Beach Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended from Altamaha Sound Georgia northward to the South Santee River South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to Destin A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to Destin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to South Santee River Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coast in the warning area Thursday night. Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Hermine is expected to be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning Thursday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible overnight near the central Florida coast. The tornado risk will increase through Thursday and spread into north Florida and southeast Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
