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| #873591 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 01.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine and measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds are a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane hunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest pressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and brings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast continues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model IVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the global models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the eastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of the forecast period, most of the global models suggest strengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an extratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast. Hermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a recent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that the cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020 degrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little while it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the GFS and the ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 27.8N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 30.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0600Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0600Z 38.0N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
