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| #873683 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 PM 01.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016 ...HERMINE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 84.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line * Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to Sandy Hook * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward * Southern Delaware Bay Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hermine was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine should cross the coast of Florida in the hurricane warning area tonight or early Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is forecast before landfall. Weakening will begin after Hermine crosses the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported a pressure of 989.4 mb (29.22 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning tonight. Winds are already near tropical storm strength in portions of the warning area, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the weekend. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown...6 to 9 feet Yankeetown to Aripeka...4 to 7 feet Aripeka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk will continue across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. Position Estimates at 900 PM EDT and 1000 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
