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| #873712 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 01.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016 The low-level center of Gaston is becoming exposed in infrared satellite imagery, with about 25 kt of westerly shear pushing the deep convection out ahead of the cyclone. Dvorak CI numbers remain 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB, while the objective ADT has dropped well into tropical storm territory. The initial winds are only lowered to 65 kt to allow for a gradual spin down of the circulation, but this estimate could be generous. Due to progressively colder sea surface temperatures and persistent shear, continued weakening is forecast. Gaston could lose its deep convection in about 36 hours after it has passed the Azores, and that's when it is expected to become post-tropical. Dissipation is still forecast by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and most closely follows the LGEM. Now that Gaston's center is exposed, there is more confidence in the initial motion (075/20 kt). Gaston is expected to move eastward or east-northeastward at a slower forward speed near the western and central Azores during the next 36 hours. After that time, the shallow remnant low should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching cold front. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 38.3N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 38.8N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 39.4N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 40.6N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0000Z 42.7N 23.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
