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| #873715 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 01.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016 ...EYE OF HERMINE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 84.3W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF KEATON BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Suwannee River * West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line * Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to Sandy Hook * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward * Southern Delaware Bay Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hermine was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general motion toward the northeast is expected with an increase in forward speed tonight through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine should make landfall along the coast of Apalachee Bay during the next few hours, then move across the eastern Florida Panhandle into southeastern Georgia early Friday. The center should then move near or over eastern South Carolina Friday night and near or over eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening will begin after the eye of Hermine crosses the coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The automated station at the Tyndall Tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (128 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions should be spreading onto the coast in the hurricane warning area at this time. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the weekend. Wind in the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf coast of Florida should diminish later tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Longboat Key. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...4 to 7 feet Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown...6 to 9 feet Yankeetown to Aripeka...4 to 7 feet Aripeka to Longboat Key...including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 feet Longboat Key to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southeastern United States from northwest Florida through southern and eastern Georgia into South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Heavy rain could reach the coastal Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to New Jersey beginning early Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across northern Florida and southern Georgia. The tornado risk will spread across the eastern Carolinas from Friday morning into Friday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. Position updates at 1200 AM EDT, 100 AM EDT, 300 AM EDT, and 400 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
