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| #873785 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:02 AM 02.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016 ...HERMINE WEAKENING BUT WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... ...STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 82.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Englewood to Ochlockonee River * Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to Sandy Hook * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward * Southern Delaware Bay Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located inland inland over southern Georgia near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 82.9 West. Hermine is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will continue to move across southeastern Georgia today, move across the coastal Carolinas tonight and move offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center of Hermine remains over land. Some re-strengthening is expected after the center moves offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. Recently reported wind gusts include 46 mph (74 km/h) at Brunswick, Georgia, and St. Augustine, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the center of Hermine this morning and spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast later today and tonight. Winds in the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf coast of Florida should gradually diminish today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Saturday and Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Hazardous storm surge will continue this morning along the Florida Gulf coast in areas of onshore winds. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southeastern United States from northwest Florida through southern and eastern Georgia into South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Heavy rain could reach the coastal Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to New Jersey beginning early Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across northern Florida and southern Georgia. The tornado risk will spread across the eastern Carolinas later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
