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| #873848 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 02.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Gaston is practically devoid of deep convection, and it is assumed that a significant spindown has occurred today. Under this assumption, the advisory intensity is set at 45 kt which is in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Since the cyclone will be moving over the colder waters to the north of the Azores and through an environment of strong shear, the forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours, and this event may occur even sooner than that. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes, along with observations from Flores in the Azores, indicate that the motion is around 070/15 kt. Gaston should curve gradually toward the northeast, ahead of a broad trough in the mid-latitude westerlies, until dissipation. The official track forecast is very close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 39.6N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 40.3N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 42.1N 25.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 44.3N 21.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
