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| #873851 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 02.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016 ...CENTER OF HERMINE PASSING NEAR CHARLESTON WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 80.5W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Fenwick Island, Delaware, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound to Sandy Hook * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations inland over southern South Carolina near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a gradual decrease in forward speed during that time. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will move across coastal South Carolina this evening, move across coastal North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning, and move offshore of the North Carolina coast by Saturday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight and early Saturday while the center of Hermine remains over land. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves offshore, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. A station at Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). Buoy 41029, located just northeast of Charleston Harbor, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by late Sunday or Sunday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area. Persons within this area should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet Elsewhere from the NC/VA border to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the southeastern United States and portions of the lower mid Atlantic from southern and eastern Georgia into South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Across southeastern Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore of Virginia and Maryland, storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Rainbands south of Hermine are expected to bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of central and northern Florida. Heavy rainfall could reach the coastal areas of Delaware and New Jersey beginning Saturday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening over coastal areas of North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
