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| #873894 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 02.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016 ...CENTER OF HERMINE MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 78.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Sandy Hook * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be require for portions of this area on Saturday. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located inland over southern North Carolina near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 78.4 West. Hermine is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed through Saturday night. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine should move across eastern North Carolina tonight and emerge over the Atlantic on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves offshore, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the south and east of the center. NOAA buoy 41013 recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by late Sunday or Sunday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 24 hours in the Hampton Roads area. Persons within this area should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet Elsewhere from the NC/VA border to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from east-central to eastern North Carolina, far southeast Virginia into the coastal sections of the Delmarva peninsula and coastal southern New Jersey through Sunday. These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods. Heavy rains may affect coastal northern New Jersey and Long Island Sunday night into early Monday. Rainbands well to the south of Hermine may produce additional isolated rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches over north Florida tonight into early Saturday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible overnight across the North Carolina Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
