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| #873949 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 AM 03.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...WATER LEVELS RISING RAPIDLY IN THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 75.6W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNW OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 250 MI...40 KM SSE OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to Sandy Hook * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Sandy Hook to west of Watch Hill Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 75.6 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to continue today. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will emerge over the Atlantic very soon, and then slow down and meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves over water, and Hermine could be near hurricane intensity by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the south and east of the center. Elizabeth City, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 32 mph (52 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at Rappahannock Light, Virginia, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h), and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.38 inches). A National Ocean Service station at Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina, recently reported a pressure of 996.6 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by late Sunday or Sunday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 12 hours in the Hampton Roads area, where water levels are rapidly rising with the approach of the next high tide. Persons within this area should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at most coastal locations between the North Carolina/Virginia border and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet Elsewhere from the NC/VA border to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey, and Long Island through Monday morning. Moisture wrapping around Hermine and trailing back to the south will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches or rain over parts of North Carolina and northern Florida. This rainfall may contribute to flooding in some areas. SURF: Swells generated by Hermine will affect much of the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
