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| #873983 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 03.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 ...VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE FLOODING OCCURRING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 74.2W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 74.2 West. Hermine has been moving toward the east at around 10 mph (17 km/h) during the past few hours. A turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed are expected by tonight, followed by a slow northward motion through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will move away from the North Carolina coast this afternoon and meander offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula Sunday night and early Monday. Surface data and data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Hermine is expected to be near hurricane intensity by Sunday. Hermine is producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds that extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Duck Pier in North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (117 km/h). A National Ocean Service station at the Coast Guard station at Hatteras, North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). NOAA buoy 44014, located about 75 miles (120 km) east of Virginia Beach recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (112 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Sunday. Wind gusts of hurricane force are occurring over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks and will continue through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by late Sunday or Sunday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next few hours in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey, and Long Island through Monday morning. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through the weekend. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
