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| #874000 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 03.Sep.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 ...HERMINE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 73.3W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet to west of Watch Hill * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 73.3 West. Hermine is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a decrease in forward speed is expected by Sunday, followed by a slow northward to northwestward motion through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next copule of days. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and Hermine is expected to intensify to hurricane force on Sunday. Hermine has a large wind field. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 44014, located about 75 miles (120 km) east of Virginia Beach, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph (108 km/h). The Norfolk International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward within the warning area along the Atlantic coast through Monday, and there may be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast in the warning area during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through tonight in the Hampton Roads area, and in the next 36 hours from Chincoteague, Virginia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. Persons within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow all instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. There is also the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours at many coastal locations between Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and Bridgeport, Connecticut. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning graphic, which displays areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina sounds...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...2 to 4 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over far southeastern Virginia and the Atlantic coastal portion of Maryland through Monday morning. Hermine is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over southern Delaware, southern and eastern New Jersey, and Long Island through Monday morning. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through Monday. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
