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| #874771 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 13.Sep.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian remains a sheared tropical storm, with the low-cloud center exposed to the south of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity estimate remains 40 kt, since the system has not become better organized since the time of the last scatterometer pass. The strong shear over Ian is being produced by an upper-level low a couple of hundred miles to the west-northwest. The global models predict this low to open up into a negatively-tilted trough, with some slight relaxation of the shear over the storm, in 24-36 hours. Therefore slight strengthening is shown by the official forecast after 24 hours, in line with the latest model consensus. The global model guidance depicts the cyclone to become frontal over the north Atlantic by 96 hours, and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The tropical cyclone is moving north-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 330/11 kt. Ian is expected to continue to move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the next day or so. Then, an approaching trough in the westerlies should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward and accelerate. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but not as fast as the latest GFS and ECMWF model predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 25.4N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.3N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 29.9N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 32.6N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 35.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 44.0N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 54.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1200Z 62.0N 13.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
