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| #874818 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 13.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection, accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right of much of the objective track guidance. That trend is forecast to continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the HWRF. With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and begins to weaken. Nevertheless, a small area of tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 30.3N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Franklin |
