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| #874892 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 14.Sep.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Ian does not look much like a tropical storm this afternoon with all of its convection well removed from a rather broad and disorganized low-level circulation. In fact, Ian has some subtropical characteristics, including its collocation with an upper-level low and a large radius of maximum wind. However, these features could be temporary. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on continuity. An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 350/15. Ian should be steered northward and northeastward during the next day or so as it moves around the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic Canada. Similar to the previous advisory, a slight westward shift in the official track forecast was required mostly due to the updated initial position. Otherwise, the forecast is a bit faster than the model consensus. Ian does not have much time left to intensify as a tropical cyclone since it should move over colder waters by tomorrow evening. It does have a narrow window of lower shear during the next day, although given its current poor organization and structure, no significant intensification is forecast during that time. Ian is then expected to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours and be absorbed by another extratropical low by 72 hours. The only significant change to the intensity forecast is for a stronger extratropical phase, but not quite as strong as the 12 UTC GFS solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 32.9N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 34.8N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 42.7N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 49.0N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
