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| #874917 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 14.Sep.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 The low-level circulation has become a little bit elongated, and due to southwesterly shear most of the convection has shifted to the northeast of the center. A convective band is still wrapping around the eastern portion of the cyclone. Based on surface observations, WSR-88D Doppler velocity data, and satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. Since the cyclone is over water, some slight intensification is possible during the next day or so before the shear increases as forecast by global models. A gradual weakening should then begin in about 36 hours. Julia appears to be moving toward the east-northeast at about 4 kt. The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and most of the models keep a weakening cyclone meandering during the next few days. The NHC track forecast follows such a trend and predicts a very slow eastward drift during the next 48 hours. Little motion is anticipated thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 32.1N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 32.2N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.2N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 32.1N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 32.0N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 32.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
