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| #874968 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 After looking more like a subtropical cyclone than a tropical cyclone for most of the past 24 hours, there has recently been an increase in convective banding over the eastern semicircle of Ian. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a subtropical cyclone intensity estimate from TAFB. Ian is forecast to merge with the westerlies and undergo extratropical transition during the next 36-48 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center Ian is accelerating northeastward and the initial motion is now 040/21. A northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed. The new forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 37.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.3N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 45.6N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 17/0000Z 51.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
