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| #874990 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 A scatterometer overpass shows that the circulation of Ian is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates northeastward, with the system elongating north to south. The scatterometer did not sample the maximum winds, and the subtropical cyclone satellite intensity estimates are unchanged. Based on this, the initial intensity remains a likely conservative 45 kt. Ian is forecast to merge with a baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the next 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Ian continues to accelerate northeastward and the initial motion is now 040/30 kt. A northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed. The new forecast track remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.6N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 43.2N 42.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1800Z 49.5N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 55.5N 26.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 61.0W 18.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
