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| #874991 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 15.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 Deep convection has redeveloped in the northeastern quadrant of the depression, although it is still a good distance away from the center. Consequently, Dvorak classifications are just about the same as earlier, and the initial wind speed estimate is kept at 30 kt. Southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue for a day or two while the cyclone remains under the influence of an upper-level trough. This trough is then expected to be replaced by a ridge in a couple of days, with generally lighter shear by early next week. While some weakening is still forecast, model guidance is in better agreement on the depression eventually reaching a more conducive environment for restrengthening, and the official intensity forecast is raised a bit in the long term. This forecast could be conservative for next week if the rather conducive environments forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET models materialize. The cyclone continues moving westward at 11 kt, and a west or west-southwest motion is expected for the next few days while the depression moves around a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast due to the system reaching the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The model guidance has spread out some on this cycle, with the UKMET having shifted a fair distance north of its previous run. A stronger system would probably turn a bit more to the west-northwest given the forecast upper-level southeasterly winds. Since the intensity prediction is higher than the last one, it makes sense to show the cyclone gaining some latitude by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is adjusted to the north of the previous one, but still lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.8N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.9N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.8N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.5N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
