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| #875711 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:52 PM 23.Sep.2016) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS THE CENTER OF KARL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST... ...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 65.3W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 65.3 West. Karl is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should pass near or to the east of Bermuda late tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Karl is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure has decreased to 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible on Bermuda tonight. RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda later today and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Karl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to increase during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Sullivan/Berg |
