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| #875725 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 23.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 All of the deep convection has been removed far from the center of Lisa by continued strong southwesterly shear of around 40 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. At this point, with a combination of strong shear, marginal SSTs and a drying mid-level atmosphere, it seems unlikely that Lisa will regain organized deep convection, so remnant low status is now indicated by 24 hours. The weak cyclone should dissipate by 72 hours in fast southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. The initial motion has been rather slow today, and is currently estimated as 310/06. The increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and then recurve between 36 and 48 hours as the deep-layer trough approaches from the west. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one after 12 hours, reflecting a westward shift in the guidance that is probably responding to Lisa`s weakening. This forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope and near the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 22.5N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 23.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 24.4N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z 27.9N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
