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| #875752 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 PM 23.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016 Lisa continues to suffer from strong vertical wind shear. There has been no deep convection within 120 nm of the center for nearly 12 hours now, though occasional bursts of convection have been noted a little farther than that to the north. A 2324 ASCAT-B pass showed several 35-kt wind vectors between the center and the convection farther to the north. Based on this new information, it is believed that Lisa was still a tropical storm at the time of the previous advisory and at 0000 UTC. Given the lack of deep convection since that time, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Regardless of the maximum winds, the dynamical guidance all suggest that the strong shear and dry mid- and upper-level air will continue to suppress convection near the center, and Lisa is forecast to be declared post-tropical within 12 hours. The remnant circulation should last a day or two after that, before dissipating ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The depression may finally be beginning to speed up, and the initial motion estimate is 315/07. The low-level remnants of Lisa are still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the Azores. The official forecast has again been nudged westward, but lies a little to the right of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 23.9N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0000Z 25.0N 40.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 26.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 28.8N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky |
