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| #875774 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 24.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 A strong burst of convection has recently formed in the northeastern quadrant of Lisa. Overall, however, the system looks less organized than it did yesterday, with the low-level circulation becoming elongated from north to south. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in agreement with the TAFB satellite classification. Although there is only limited skill in forecasting deep convection, this burst is expected to be ephemeral due to strong shear and dry air aloft. Thus, Lisa is still forecast to be a remnant low by this evening. The global models show Lisa weakening and opening up into a trough within 2 days, and so will the NHC prediction. The initial motion is a bit faster than earlier, now 315/08. Lisa, or its remnants, are still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the Azores. The official forecast is close to the previous one and the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 23.8N 37.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 24.6N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/0600Z 26.0N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
