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| #875804 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 24.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 The convective burst that occurred overnight has separated from the low-level center of Lisa and is now nearly dissipated. This leaves Lisa as a tight swirl of low-level clouds once again. An ASCAT-B pass around 1200 UTC indicated that maximum winds were close to 40 kt, but given the degradation of the cloud pattern since the pass the initial wind speed is set at 35 kt. This makes Lisa a tropical storm again. Even though Lisa is a little stronger than estimated earlier, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Continued strong shear and dry air should cause a gradual decay of the cyclone, and Lisa will likely become a remnant low by tonight. The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it becomes absorbed by a cold front. Lisa is moving northwestward at 9 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the next 24 hours as Lisa remains steered by a high pressure system to its north. A motion more toward the north is forecast to occur on Sunday as the high shifts eastward to near the Azores. Only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track prediction, and it lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 24.7N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 25.7N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 27.4N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 29.3N 42.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
