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| #875857 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 24.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016 Karl continues to produce a large area of cold-topped convection to the northeast of the center. However, data from the NOAA P-3, NOAA G-IV, and the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the circulation is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates toward the northeast. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a combination of dropsonde, flight level, and SFMR winds from the three planes, and the central pressure of 992 mb is based on data from a Global Hawk dropsonde. While Karl is expected to become post tropical by 24 hours, it should intensify to a hurricane-force system as it does so, and this is shown in the intensity forecast. By 36 hours, the system should be absorbed into a larger extratropical low to its northwest. The initial motion estimate is now 055/25. Karl should continue to accelerate on a general northeastward heading ahead of a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the forward speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 35.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 38.2N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 44.6N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
