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| #876531 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 01.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016 Recent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has changed little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The hurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of days, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until it interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in about 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the upper-level environment and warm waters will favor some restrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall replacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate of the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane reaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday. A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the hurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level trough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the north-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC forecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the overall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72 hours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the track is low. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 13.8N 73.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.2N 73.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 15.3N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.7N 74.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.3N 74.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 25.0N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
