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| #876784 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:07 AM 04.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning, but since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional imagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt earlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the plane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in this advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew interacts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the environment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear. Radar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east of Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward allowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a strong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast United States from days 2 through 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.9N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 74.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.0N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 25.6N 77.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 29.5N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 34.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
