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| #876897 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:23 AM 05.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016 Thunderstorm activity has been bursting since the overnight hours near Nicole`s center, which is located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.0, so Nicole`s intensity is held at 45 kt. Nicole`s small circulation has found itself beneath an upper-level low and shear axis, so the vertical shear affecting the system does not seem as strong as various large-scale calculations of 25-30 kt from the north would suggest. Nicole could continue to be situated under the shear axis for another 24 hours or so. But after that time, the shear axis is forecast to dissipate, and the large-scale shear numbers indicated in the SHIPS diagnostics should be more representative. The intensity models show very little change in intensity during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast holds Nicole`s strength through day 3. The models then show a general weakening trend on days 4 and 5, and that`s what is indicated in the advisory. Nicole has picked up a little speed with an initial motion of 300/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward soon and maintain its speed for the next 24 hours while it moves around a mid-level high. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough drops southward from New England, causing Nicole to put on the brakes. While the UKMET and GFDL models show the trough pushing Nicole southwestward, the remainder of the models induce a motion with an eastward component. The NHC forecast continues to favor the eastern models, and the spread among the guidance suggests that Nicole will meander during the day 2-5 time range. Except for a slight westward shift in the track on days 3-5, the NHC track is fairly similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 25.0N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 26.0N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 27.3N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 28.1N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 28.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 27.3N 63.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.5N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
