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| #876932 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 05.Oct.2016) TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO SAVANNAH RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD * FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO SUWANNEE RIVER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 75.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 75.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 75.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 76.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.6N 78.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.0N 80.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.6N 76.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 75.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
