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| #877084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 06.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS... ...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 78.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of South Santee River to Surf City, North Carolina. The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay * Anclote River to Suwannee River * North of South Santee River to Surf City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 78.6 West. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest early Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should move near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the next hour or so, and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely while the hurricane moves toward the coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Settlement Point in the Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust of 62 mph (100 km/hr). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida this evening and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida east coast tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected on Friday. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Deerfield Beach, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: The central and northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina....5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches Rainfall should diminish across central and eastern Cuba with isolated additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible through this evening. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the east-central Florida coast tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
