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| #877172 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 07.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 Nicole no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud pattern suggests that 30 kt of northwesterly shear is beginning to offset the deep convection to the southeast of the center. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased, so the initial intensity is set at 85 kt as a blend of the final-T and CI numbers. Strong vertical shear is expected to persist over Nicole, increasing and turning out of the north during the next several days. As a result, continued weakening is anticipated, and the intensity models indicate that Nicole`s winds should gradually diminish in strength through day 4. By day 5, the vertical shear may decrease, and Nicole could regain some strength at the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the ICON intensity consensus, which puts it slightly below the previous forecast for much of the forecast period. There has been no recent microwave data to help locate the center, but cloud motions suggest that Nicole is drifting southward. The overall steering currents are expected to remain weak for several more days. However, for the next 48 hours, Nicole will be situated between a digging shortwave trough and a mid-level high between it and Hurricane Matthew, which should cause Nicole to move slowly southward. After that time, the cyclone could be close enough to Matthew`s circulation to cause it to turn northward. While the track models don`t agree on how far south Nicole will move, they do all generally show the same solutions of very little net motion through five days. The updated NHC track is adjusted from the previous track forecast toward the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 27.0N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 26.1N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 25.2N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.8N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
